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Projecte llegit

Títol: Aviation and Development in Emerging Africa: Diagnostics, Trends, and Policy Levers for Market Development (2026-2045)

Estudiants que han llegit aquest projecte:

Director/a: TRAPOTE BARREIRA, CÉSAR

Departament: FIS

Títol: Aviation and Development in Emerging Africa: Diagnostics, Trends, and Policy Levers for Market Development (2026-2045)

Data inici oferta: 01-02-2026     Data finalització oferta: 01-10-2026


Estudis d'assignació del projecte:
    GR ENG SIST AEROESP
Tipus: Individual
 
Lloc de realització: EETAC
 
Paraules clau:
Transport aeri, Àfrica, prognosi, diagnòsi, inversió, sostenibilitat
 
Descripció del contingut i pla d'activitats:
El treball descriu la situació actual del transport aeri a l'Àfrica (demanda, oferta, connectivitat, capacitat aeroportuària i costos) i identifica els principals colls d'ampolla que limiten la connexió amb les grans ciutats globals.

Fa una diagnosi estructurada amb PESTEL (context macro), Porter (estructura competitiva) i SWOT (posició estratègica) per entendre per què el creixement és irregular i quines condicions el poden accelerar o frenar.

Estima tendències i construeix un forecast per escenaris (2030-2045) de passatgers, rutes i centralitat de hubs, incorporant factors com urbanització, renda, estabilitat, turisme/comerç i restriccions climàtiques.

Avalua palanques d'actuació per compatibilitzar creixement i sostenibilitat: eficiència operativa, modernització ATM, renovació de flota, SAF, electrificació a terra, gestió de capacitat i planificació aeroportuària resilient.

Tanca amb un paquet de polítiques (governança, regulació, finançament, incentius verds, connectivitat regional i acords aeris) orientat a millorar l'accés a xarxes globals (Europa - Golf - Àsia - Amèrica) minimitzant emissions i riscos socials/financers.
 
Overview (resum en anglès):
Air transport constitutes a strategic catalyst for economic development, territorial integration, and international connectivity across Africa. However, the African aviation sector remains historically under-studied in academic literature relative to developed regions (Akinyemi, 2023; Valdes, 2015). This thesis evaluates the historical evolution, structural determinants, and future prospects of air passenger traffic across nine selected emerging African aviation markets: Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Ghana, Namibia, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Tunisia.

Adopting a two-fold methodology, the study combines a qualitative historical diagnosis (1970-2023) based on a PESTEL framework with quantitative univariate time-series forecasting. Historical contextualisation highlights that air passenger travel behaves as a derived demand driven by macro-economic conditions, income levels (Valdes, 2015), political stability, security perceptions, fuel price volatility, safety regulation, and market liberalisation under initiatives such as the Yamoussoukro Decision (IATA, 2014). The qualitative findings emphasize that external shocks-such as civil conflicts, currency devaluations, national carrier collapses, and health crises like COVID-19-produce severe cyclical disruptions across African aviation markets (Tolcha, 2023).
For the quantitative component, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were selected, parameterised, and diagnostic-tested (using ADF, Ljung-Box, and Shapiro tests) using annual World Bank passenger data. Country-specific forecasts were produced for the horizon up to 2045 and critically evaluated against qualitative determinants. Results demonstrate that traffic growth varies significantly across aviation profiles: while Southern African hubs benefit from economic activity, low-cost carrier expansion, and market opening (Zhang et al., 2024), undiversified economies and politically sensitive markets remain highly volatile.

The study concludes that long-term aviation growth in Africa is viable but highly conditional. Numerical forecasts must be contextualised within country-specific institutional stability, infrastructure development, airline fleet capacity, and regulatory safety oversight. Ultimately, fulfilling Africa's connectivity potential requires sustained policy levers targeting market liberalisation, safety compliance, and also economic and political stability.

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