Projecte matriculat
Títol: Analysis of long-term coupling of the thermospheric density and the tropospheric CO2
Director/a: GIL PONS, PILAR
Departament: FIS
Títol: Analysis of long-term coupling of the thermospheric density and the tropospheric CO2
Data inici oferta: 22-05-2026 Data finalització oferta: 22-01-2027
Estudis d'assignació del projecte:
DG ENG AERO/SIS TEL- DG ENG AERO/TELEMÀT
| Tipus: Individual | |
| Lloc de realització: EETAC | |
| Segon director/a (UPC): GUTIÉRREZ CABELLO, JORDI | |
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| Context: Assessing the thermospheric density is essential for accurately determining satellite trajectories and re-entry stages, particularly in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO). Recent literature has identified an interesting trend linking the increase in tropospheric CO$_2$ concentrations to a decrease in thermospheric density of approximately 5% per decade. The underlying mechanism is qualitatively understood: CO2 is expected to cool and contract the thermosphere, reducing neutral density at fixed altitudes and altering satellite drag. However, isolating the specific contribution of CO2 from observational data remains challenging, as thermospheric density is simultaneously affected by strong drivers, including solar ultraviolet radiation, geomagnetic activity, and other space-weather phenomena.
Goal: This thesis aims to develop a reproducible data pipeline that harmonises multiple observational datasets of thermospheric density-including those from TU Delft, PANGAEA, and the Swarm mission-and integrates them with a range of atmospheric CO2 records (NOAA, EDGAR, Global Carbon Budget, CarbonTracker CT2022, among others). The analysis will explicitly account for space weather variability to disentangle the CO2-driven signal from other external effects. Methodology: To assess causal relationships under the influence of strong external drivers, the analysis employs nonlinear, lag-aware causality testing combined with surrogate-based significance assessment. This approach enables detection of directional coupling between tropospheric CO$_2$ and thermospheric density while accouting for other factors such as solar and geomagnetic activity. Expected results: The study aims to identify the dominant physical mechanisms driving the decline in thermospheric density and to characterise the properties of its potential correlation with tropospheric CO2 concentrations. By quantifying this relationship, the work will contribute to improved modelling of upper atmospheric evolution and its implications for predicting satellite drag and orbital debris. |
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