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Projecte llegit

Títol: Anàlisi de la dinàmica epidemiològica d'escarlatina a Catalunya

Estudiant que ha llegit aquest projecte:

Tutor/Cotutor: LOPEZ CODINA, DANIEL

Departament: FIS

Títol: Anàlisi de la dinàmica epidemiològica d'escarlatina a Catalunya

Data inici oferta: 06-07-2023      Data finalització oferta: 06-03-2024

Estudis d'assignació del projecte:
    GR ENG SIS BIOLÒGICS
    GR ENG SIS BIOLÒG 23

Lloc de realització:
EEABB

Segon tutor (UPC): PRATS SOLER, CLARA

Paraules clau:
EGA, SXTE, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, SIVIC i IQR

Descripció del contingut i pla d'activitats:
Les malalties estrepcòcciques causen brots epidèmics, especialment entre els infants de forma regular. El comportament epidemiològic d'aquestes malalties s'ha vist afectat de forma important, com en totes les malalties infeccioses, per les mesures associades a la pandèmia. L'increment del nombre de persones susceptibles actual ens ha portat a patir incidències més altes que les anteriors a la pandèmia, incloent casos greus. Entendre la dinàmica d'aquestes epidèmies és cabdal per poder optimitzar la gestió. Es desenvoluparan models matemàtics compartimentats, tipus SEIR, per poder millorar la comprensió de la dinàmica epidemiològica.

Overview (resum en anglès): Streptococcus pyogenes, also known as Group A ß-hemolytic streptococcus (EGA), is a bacterium
that affects the skin and the oropharynx. It is transmitted through droplets and direct contact,
mainly affecting children and can cause mild infections such as Scarlet Fever or some invasive ones
like necrotizing fasciitis.
Although its sensitivity to penicillin is known, an increase in invasive infections has been observed
in recent years, especially after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This is where the need to understand
the new epidemiological dynamics that it presents arises to be able to anticipate potential
epidemics of invasive infections and the correction of the current increasing transmission dynamics.
In this project, carried out with the research group BIOCOM-SC at UPC and in collaboration with the
research group "Infecció i Immunitat al pacient pediàtric" from "Vall d'Hebron", the aim is to
understand the epidemiological dynamics of Scarlet Fever both in the long and short term. This is
to determine the changes that have occurred in these dynamics due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
To answer the questions suggested at the beginning of the project, it has been processed and
analysed the daily data from the "Vigilància sindròmica d'infeccions a Atenció Primària" provided
by the "Sistema d'Informació per a la Vigilància d'Infeccions a Catalunya" (SIVIC). Based on the
obtained data, a set of graphs has been generated to examine the epidemiological dynamics in
annual, quarterly, and weekly periods, with the aim of identifying possible patterns both in the long
and short term.
The obtained results indicate that the transmissibility of Scarlet Fever is related to school periods,
during which there is an increase in diagnoses of this infection. From the results, it has also been
confirmed that there has been an increase in diagnoses from 2022 compared to the period of time
when we started having data, 2011, until 2019 where the COVID-19 pandemic started. Finally, it
has been observed that the number of diagnoses is not independent of the day of the week, with a
higher number of diagnoses at the beginning of the week and a lower number during the weekend.

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